When does population ‘growth' end? The case of New Zealand

Depopulation is typically acknowledged only when it is in evidence at the level of the total population. It would certainly seem some distance off in a population still growing at or above the global growth rate, as is the case for New Zealand. However sub-national analysis identifies that just on half of the nation’s growth now occurs in just one city, Auckland, which, together with a further seven Territorial Authority Areas (12 per cent in total) share 80 per cent of all growth. The cause of this disparity is that the age structures of most non-urban areas are no longer conducive to growth, structural ageing from conventional drivers being accelerated by net migration loss at young adult ages and/or net gain at older ages. The paper argues that this scenario is now escalating, and will continue until zero growth or population decline embraces all but the major urban areas, with attendant social, economic and political implications. Accordingly the paper posits that it is time to re-evaluate the question: when does population ‘growth’ end?