Studying long-term social processes: Intersections between macro-historical sociology and path-dependence

Every historical analysis is ex post by definition. That is, historical studies depart from past events to look for an artificial logic that allows for the interpretation of a succession of events that would otherwise make no sense. Macro-historical sociology and path-dependence theory both give analytical explanations for long-term social processes that allow for the incorporation of change and continuity without disturbing our understanding of the historical process. Even so, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the ways that the two methodologies can be adopted together.

The objective of this paper is to highlight the gains to be had by using concepts derived from the path-dependence theory, like learning effects, coordination effects and adaptive expectations, to complement macro-historical analysis. In regards to the latter, the main inspiration is the work of Reinhard Bendix, whose proposal of studying social change based on the analytical division between authority and solidarity, and his reformulation of the concepts of tradition and modernity are especially relevant to understand long-term social processes. According to this tradition, historical processes cannot be understood as simple before-and-after models, which imply that we should expect to identify traditional and modern aspects i.e. changes and continuities interacting simultaneously in any changing societal arrangement.

Moreover, social processes are seen as dynamic processes rather than historically limited events, which makes the timing and sequence of historical events central to understanding the development of any social process. I argue that this is where the insights brought by the literature based on path dependency can complement the macro-sociological interpretation of social processes, looking specifically at the high level of contingency ex ante and different options available at initial events.