Fear abatement and oppositional mobilization: Comparative perspectives on democratic movements in repressivestates

Abstract: This research paper focuses on two theoretical threads in the field of protest studies that have been present for about a decade: (1) the renewed interest in emotional aspects of collective action; and (2) a dynamic and relational approach to collective action, specifically the search for general mechanisms and processes (McAdam, Tarrow, and Tilly 2001) that operate across different episodes of contention. Drawing on empirical examples both from current events in the Middle East, Russia and China, and from several separate research projects in authoritarian states, the study elaborates the mechanism of fear abatement as a necessary process in the development of democratic oppositions in repressive settings. The research suggests that the fear abatement mechanism develops out of the internal contradictions of authoritarian control in complex societies, which allow cracks in the repressive apparatus where free spaces develop. The social exchange and network basis of these free spaces change calculations of risk and experiences of fear, undermining Kuran’s notion of “preference falsification” in the public sphere. There is also evidence of hidden but significant cases of “preference facilitation” among middle-level state authorities. The result is that relationship between protest and repression is neither linear nor curvilinear, as existing theories might predict, but rather path dependent on the social relations among state and society of late authoritarianisms. These relations can intensify, mask, and redirect or mitigate emotions. The notions on "losing your fear" and "fear being dispelled" were widely reported in accounts of the democracy movements in Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria, and it is important that our theories of democratization account for them. Drawing on data from the cases mentioned above, this report elaborates the mechanism of fear ababement as first step in imaging a democratic future in nondemocracies.