Imagining the future of Greenland

Greenland is a community facing rapid industrial development. For example an aluminium smelter with a capacity of minimum 360,000 tonnes per year is planned, and in September 2010, 12 oil companies applied to search for oil off the coast of Greenland. This is compared to the fact that Greenland is a relatively small community of 56.000 inhabitants and a fragile arctic ecosystem. An urgent question for the Greenlandic politicians and public is how to make this development a sustainable one for the Greenlandic society?

In Greenland, many decisions need to be taken which may have great consequences, and this paper seeks to explore scenario development as a tool for opening up a dialogue and for decision makers and the public to think about development in a structured way. The paper thus takes an empirical and practical approach in reporting a case study of the use of futures thinking and its possible application in a Greenlandic context.

The study presented in this paper takes an apporach of building a set of scenarios for development in Greenland. The scenarios are made with input from Greenlandic stakeholders in three steps

1)      Asking stakeholders what parameters they find are the most important for the development of Greenland till 2050.

2)      Describing 4 scenarios based on the input, using a matrix approach.

3)      Asking stakeholders to comment on the realism and content of the scenarios and their relevans for the Greenlandic situation.

For the study presented, it has been chosen to rely much on the insight and values of local stakeholders. Previously scenarios have been made for Greenland; however, these have been based on natural science with little input from stakeholders. This leads to a discussion of value-rationality, and what may be the benefits and disadvantages of basing scenarios on values and stakeholders?