Thursday, August 2, 2012: 12:00 AM
Faculty of Economics, TBA
Distributed Paper
There is a very interisting debate in the field of economists in Brazil about new developmentalists ideas. And some sustain a real change. Was the crisis of 2008-2009 a critical juncture which would allow prevailing of a new kind of developmentalism? I disagree because the institutional design of the Brazilian state is still based on neoliberalism ideas. Since the 1964 Coup d’Etat, the decision-making process of macroeconomic policy was placed on a particular agency. The decision-making process of macroeconomic policy in Lula’s government settles a significant change that had been made in the state apparatus during Cardoso's second term (1999-2002). For the first time, since 1964, it has two agencies - relatively independent of each other - that share the decisionmaking process of macroeconomic policy; on one hand, fiscal policy is conducted by the Ministry of Finance (MF); ii) and the other hand, monetary and exchange rate policies are under the responsibility of the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB).This is the main reason why I argue that Brazil is still attached to neoliberalism, obviously not to the fundamentalist neoliberalism (the extreme neoliberalism). As long the BCB is committed solely to price stability and having relative autonomy from the President, sustainable growth will always be threatened and interrupted by the fight against inflation with relative high interest rates and appreciated exchange rate (the “stability” convention). The success in combating the crisis of 2008-2009 was important to set the hegemony of moderate neoliberalism, but a new developmentalist project that aspires macroeconomic stability has not been able to make a economic and social alternative project to neoliberalism. Is Dilma administration following the same footsteps of Lula administration? Are the MF and BCB still relatively independent from each other? Which economic ideas are Dilma administration following? The paper will also try to present some hypothesis.