Joining and leaving Dutch politial parties, results from a panel study

Joining and leaving Dutch politial parties, results from a panel study

Wijbrandt H. van Schuur

Department of Sociology, University of Groningen, The Netherlands

h.van.schuur@rug.nl

In this paper results will be discussed of a panel study in which four groups of respondents (members, former members, potential members and non-members of Dutch political parties) who participated in a web survey in 2009 are surveyed again in early 2012.   Results of the first (2009) wave have been disseminated in papers for ECPR and ASA workshops (e.g., Van Schuur and Voerman, 2010).  Changes in party membership between 2009 and 2012 are expected. About 30% of non-members said that they might be willing to donate money to a party without becoming a member, about 25% of potential members were classified as having a high probability of becoming a member, and, equally about a quarter of former members indicated that they might become a member again. Among the present members approximately 10% indicated that they might leave their party. This panel study attempts to show what has happened in the last three years, and which characteristics of the respondents in the 2009 study are the best predictors of their party changing behavior in 2012. As a theoretical framework Seyd and Whiteley’s (1992) General Incentives Model is used.

Seyd, P. & Whiteley, P. (1992). Labour’s Grassroots: The Politics of Party Membership. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

Van Schuur, W.H. & Voerman, G. (2010a). Democracy in retreat? Decline in political party membership: the case of The Netherlands. In: Wejnert, B.(ed.). Democratic Paths and Trends. Research in Political Sociology, 18, 25–51.