Future orientations and economic success: Empirical analyses informed by the theory of planned behavior

Drawing on the theory of planned behavior, this paper examines the role of psychological determinants for Poles’ economic success, above and beyond the traditional determinants of occupational achievement. I expect that peoples’ outlook on the future – in terms of perceived opportunities and threats, or their general perception of times to come – has a lasting impact on their economic accomplishments, understood here as attaining higher income and/or privileged class membership. I analyze this relation over time, considering that the current status (S_t) is an additive function of future orientations (F_t-1) and earlier status (S_t-2).  The Polish Panel Survey POLPAN provides the data for my analyses. In this survey, a representative sample of adult Poles was interviewed in 1988 and re-interviewed in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008.  Methodologically, I use (a) lag variables in OLS and in logistic regression for particular time-points, and (b) cross-sectional time-series analysis that accounts for autocorrelation and multicollinearity stemming form the hierarchical structure of panel data.  Results support the main hypothesis in this study: consistently, thinking confidently about the future has positive effects on earnings and on belonging to the privileged social classes. This impact is substantive and statistically significant when prior income and social class, demographic characteristics, and education are controlled for. The results are robust under the specification of models in cross-sectional and panel regression forms.