The non-handling of climate change uncertainties in strategic environmental assessment of urban planning

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), which in the European context is governed by the EU Directive ”on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment” from 2001, has been pointed out as a relevant area of focus when dealing with climate change, hereunder within urban planning.

In the European context integration of climate change in SEA is also legally required. Further comes that potential uncertainty, not just in relation to climate change but for the SEA as such is demanded explained in the environmental report. However, an analysis of Danish environmental reports with a focus on the mandatory explicit consideration of uncertainties encountered in the assessment shows that SEA practice in urban planning to a large extent does not explicitly communicate uncertainties.

Against this backdrop, this paper aims to contribute to our understanding of how actors cope with climate change uncertainty, and seeks to discuss the following question:

• What are the mechanisms behind coping with uncertainty in decision-making?

For the discussion on mechanisms behind the non-handling of climate change uncertainties, coping mechanisms were developed from decision-making literature. The decision-makers handling of uncertainties are distinguished into the following coping strategies: Denying uncertainty, ignoring uncertainty and finally postponing consideration of uncertainty. Further five possible reasons behind avoiding uncertainty are proposed: Uncertainty itself, cognitive limitations, conflict avoidance, instilling trust and reliance on quantification.