The 2017 problem: A next revolutionary situation

Similarities and regularities among recent revolutions in North Africa and historical revolutions of the 20^th and 19^th centuries can be explained with use of classical theories of revolutionary situations (V. Lenin, C. Tilly, T. Skocpol). Tunisian and Egyptian cases demonstrate that despite all specificities three components of revolutionary situation remain the same: 1) crisis of the old ruling elite ability to govern; 2) crisis of loyalty among youth cohorts of lower middle strata; 3) crisis of living standards what makes possible fast and massive mobilization. Classical theories have been focused on political and economic aspects of revolutionary situation while crisis of the youth loyalty represents also cultural dimension of 3D-configuration of revolutionary situation.

Theoretical model of three crises constellation could be projected on the period around the year 2017 when old-fashioned leaders of restricted and manipulated democracies like post-soviet Russia, Belorussia, Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan probably will face coincidence of 1) next cyclical recession of global economy entering the downswing phase of the 5^th Kondratieff cycle; 2) inefficiency of legitimization and control patterns oriented towards ‘baby-boomers’ generation expectations and based on mass media and welfare; 3) upraise of alternative movements mobilizing the youth which avoids traditional patterns of political participation, uses non-armed violence, flash mob tactics, and newest media for ad hoc groupings.    

For advanced democracies like USA, UK or EU the 2017 problem does not seem to provoke a wave of fast revolutions colored or flowered, but during next decade general social transformation can occur as absorption of new radical movements challenging relatively weak economy dominated by financial markets and global brands; politics saturated by image making in branding and show business styles; culture divided by intergenerational gap in value-orientations and patterns of communications.