Future Scenarios in Ageing Research

Future studies are of central importance for ageing research in Europe. Ageing research is currently flourishing is Europe, because Europe has the oldest population in the world. This population is still ageing, which changes e.g. family constellations, labourmarket structures and older peoples’ social identities. Moreover, it inspires companies, researchers and policymakers to prepare for the future, e.g. through workplace modifications, policy reforms, and restructured research agendas. Unfortunately, many statements about future social consequences of population ageing ignore the element of uncertainty. They either work with one constant scenario only, or they define alternative scenarios through mere modifications of mathematical equations. As a result, these studies overlook the qualitative impact of on-going social change and the complexities of society, which are key topics in sociology. This presentation makes suggestions on how to fill this lacuna. It argues that studies on the future of ageing societies need to utilize qualitatively different scenarios if they want to outline a comprehensive picture of possible futures. Using insight from a literature review, expert interviews, and a focus group, this presentation suggests useful sets of scenarios for studies on the future of ageing societies. A key finding is that there are several “most suitable sets of scenarios”, because scenarios differ across research topics. A second key finding is that the “most suitable sets of scenarios” changes over time, because scenarios need to keep up with advances in our knowledge and beliefs. The findings of this presentation help to establish future studies as an integral part of ageing research. Moreover, they indicate how ageing research can increase its impact on future-oriented action.