Cultural Evolution and Kondratieff Waves

Monday, 11 July 2016: 16:00
Location: Hörsaal 21 (Juridicum)
Oral Presentation
Anton GRININ, Volgograd Social Research Center, Russia
Leonid GRININ, National Recearch University Higher School of Economics, Russia
Cyclicity is one of most important components of cultural macrodynamics strongly affecting cultural evolution patterns. The long cycles with a characteristic period between 40 and 60 years which are known as Kondratieff waves are good examples of such patterns. The theory of long cycles is one of few theories that give opportunities to make forecasts on the scientific basis. In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with new technological revolution. This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable to combine many other technologies such as bio-, nano- and robotic technologies. The article offers some forecasts concerning the development of these technologies.