Forecasting Models for the Numbers of Indigenous Graduate Students in the Context of Graduate Schools Expansion in Taiwan—Curvilinear Regression of the Ministry of Education's Statistics from 1998 to 2014
The findings are as followings: Generally, Growth Model is much more fitted (R2=.953) and the forecasting formula is yindigenous graduate student=e (2.177+0.00002585*non-indigenous graduate student). By variables of genders, birth registrations of Indigenous populous municipalities, and larger ethnicities of Amis and Paiwan, Growth Models also indicated the continuous increasing. It reflected Indigenous population growth rate (1.2%) is higher than that of non-indigenous (0.3%), due to numerous youths from mix-marriage families obtain or restore the statuary Indigenous identity with consanguinity. Besides, the coefficient of Growth Model of females’ is higher than that of males’ and females outnumbered males by 50 in recent 2 years, while non-Indigenous males outnumbered females by 20,000. Finally, by variables of smaller Puyuma, Bunun, and Truku ethnicities, S-Curve is much more fitted and the forecasting formula for Puyuma, for example, is ypuyuma graduate student=e(6.893-611625.999/non-indigenous graduate student), showing the numbers are slowing down.