Refugees Welcome? Mass Migration As a Highly Complex Steering Problem

The exodus of refugees in the year 2015 from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and different countries of Africa to Europe hits the European Union in a complicated situation, where the economic and social positions of the single member states heavily differ from each other and no consensus exists about an adequate strategy how to handle the surge of refugees pounding at Europe's gates. Finding a solution which can operate even on an approximate adequate basis, requires a way of thinking and analysis which is able to deal with highly complex and dynamic matters.

The paper proposed here, will show the potential of SOCIOCYBERNETICS to do this. It concentrates on the situation at the second half of the year 2015 in Germany, when the German government declared its willingness to accept entry of a very large number of refugees for offering them asylum. In contrary to earlier situations the German government and the German public accept that the question whether the refugees after a while will return to their homeland or not is an open question and one have to recognize that most of them will stay in Germany or another European country for the future. This presumption requires strategies to ensure the inclusion of a large number of asylum-seekers into society (and that means in all social systems) at an early stage. My paper using an observable model will show which arrangements are necessary in three different respects:

1) for different social systems (economy, education, family, health, etc.),

2) on different administrative levels (federal, single German states, administrative districts and municipality), and

3) in different time frames (immediately after arrival, within the first three month, within the first year, three years etc.).