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Assessing and Projecting Social Impacts of Climate and Environmental Change
Assessing and Projecting Social Impacts of Climate and Environmental Change
Abstract Submissions Closed
Wednesday, 24 February 2021: 16:00-17:30
Location:
RC24 Environment and Society (host committee)
Language: English
Session Type: Oral
With the “Paris Agreement” the global community committed itself formally to limit global warming to considerably below 2°C compared to preindustrial times, possibly even to below 1.5°C. But the nationally determined contributions to emissions reductions and actual greenhouse gas emissions do not evolve in a way consistent with this target. This is just one context of environmental change which calls for a deeper understanding of the social dynamics of impact and mitigation. For example, existing future greenhouse gas emissions and climate scenarios tend to be centered around idealized normative questions such as “what should happen?” in a 2°C or 1.5°C optimized world, and to be driven by socio-economic assumptions that are lacking process-based social science insights. This session is devoted to research that informs our understanding which climate and environmental futures are possible—meaning that they are consistent with our joint understanding of both climate/environmental and social dynamics—and which are plausible—meaning that we expect them to unfold with appreciable probability. Such research identifies future scenarios that incorporate the latest process-based knowledge of social dynamics, known feedback processes in the natural and human–environment systems, and actual dynamics of governance structures.
Session Organizer: