Fragile Ecosystems, Fragile Peace: Examining the Fragility of Peace and Security in the Face of Climate Change in Northern Kenya

This paper investigates the fundamental issue of environmental change and its unfavorable effect on harmony and security in Northern Kenya. Northern Kenya Counties (NKCs), more so climate change in transforming and redefining the way society think about security and peace, northern Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate change. The study was conducted based on primary data from 45 cases in NKCs. In total, 37 archetypical patterns were extracted, and the following implications were observed, projected climate change poses a serious threat to Kenya's national security; it acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions in Kenya. Climate change-related shifts in rainfall patterns and increased frequency of droughts have led to resource scarcity and competition, exacerbating existing social and economic vulnerabilities. Local authorities lack the resources, capacity, and coordination needed to effectively manage the impacts of climate change on communities. Climate change-related environmental degradation has led to increased migration and displacement. Conflict-sensitive adaptation strategies are needed. Such strategies should take into account the potential unintended consequences of adaptation measures on conflict dynamics and prioritize the participation of marginalized communities in decision-making processes. International support is critical to addressing the climate change threat to peace and security in NKCs.

The security implications of climate change in Northern Kenya extend beyond the region. Its proximity to conflict-prone areas such as Somalia and South Sudan heightens security risks. The resulting destabilization can spill over into neighboring regions, exacerbating conflicts and burdening fragile states. Addressing climate change and its security implications requires collaborative regional efforts and comprehensive strategies to build resilience and promote sustainable development.

Climate change severely threatens peace and security in Northern Kenya, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and tensions. Urgent action is necessary to comprehensively address climate change, integrating climate resilience, conflict prevention, sustainable development, and effective governance.