The Political Consequences of Latin American Urban Revolts

A growing body of social science literature has focused on understanding the roots and dynamics of urban revolts in Latin America. However, while extensive research exists on the consequences of social movements, less is known about the outcomes of revolts, both within the region and beyond. As part of the Fondecyt Regular project (No. 1240777), urban revolts are defined as mass episodes of collective protests in major cities, where multiple actors challenge political authorities using peaceful, violent, and disruptive tactics. This study examines over twenty revolts from 1989 to 2023, exploring their short-term (up to one year) and medium-term (up to three years) political consequences.

The research identifies three ideal types of political outcomes. The first, "containment," involves the government harshly repressing the revolts, deterring further protests without making significant concessions. The second, "reorientation," sees authorities staying in power, making some ministerial changes, and addressing the uprising's demands through specific policy measures. The third type, "ideological replacement," occurs when the executive power falls, leading to the rise or strengthening of sociopolitical forces that embody the revolt's demands, potentially resulting in significant shifts in economic development goals or cultural recognition of previously subordinated groups.

After classifying the Latin American revolts into these categories, the study investigates the characteristics of the revolts (tactics, groups, size, diffusion) and the pre-uprising context that explain variations in their political outcomes. It questions why some uprisings significantly alter the national landscape, while others leave little impact, and whether factors like the legitimacy of the government, state capacity, repressive responses, or international interventions play a role in combination with revolts. The research also explores how these mechanisms might help in understanding uprisings in other regions like Europe, Asia, or Africa.