Unique Low Fertility Patterns and Their Causes in the Demographic Transition of East Asia

The major economies of East Asia have undergone a profound transition from high fertility rates to levels far below replacement, becoming global “fertility gaps.” These economies, deeply influenced by shared cultural factors, face the common challenge of low fertility. Therefore, exploring the trends, causes, and potential mechanisms of fertility changes within East Asia’s cultural context offers important insights for understanding and addressing China’s fertility issues. This paper analyzes East Asia’s distinct fertility patterns, including low rates of non-marital births, delayed marriage and childbirth, declining birth order, increasing lifetime unmarried rates, and a preference for male children. These patterns result from both global factors and region-specific influences. Direct factors include “compressed modernity,” which has driven transformations in family and social structures, while expanded education has shifted women’s economic status and attitudes towards marriage and childbirth. Economic uncertainty and the high costs of child-rearing also constrain decisions about marriage and fertility. At a deeper level, Confucian values centered on familism, collectivism, and elitism shape gender roles, family divisions of labor, intergenerational relationships, and fertility preferences. These values influence educational priorities and the psychological costs of parenting, limiting the effectiveness of policy interventions. The persistence of low fertility rates and East Asia’s unique fertility patterns suggest that Confucian culture’s influence on fertility is neither singular nor static. As economic, social, and cultural conditions evolve, so does the impact of Confucianism on fertility. This provides crucial guidance for future fertility policies. East Asia should recognize its unique cultural constraints and integrate Confucian values into policy design. Emphasizing family harmony and intergenerational support, policies must align with shifting traditional values to enhance cultural sensitivity and societal impact, ultimately promoting long-term population balance and sustainable development across the region.