From Easy to Hard Redistribution: The Chinese Government Strategy in the 21st Century

Authoritarian leaders face a tradeoff of effectively balancing benefits between elites and masses to maximize the regime’s survival and stability prospects. This is especially salient when the leaders must undertake “hard redistribution” -- sustaining and improving the social welfare provision within the current political framework but without a substantial increase in fiscal commitments and social contributions. Facing the challenges of formidable structural changes such as rapid population aging and slower economic growth, the Chinese government has been leveraging regional disparities to undertake inter-regional redistribution instead of inter-class redistribution to meet public demands for better social protection. I draw upon a text analysis of 24,699 social welfare policy documents issued by the Chinese central and local governments between 1993 and 2024 and a qualitative study of China’s pension reform in the recent decade to support the argument.