Age at First Marriage and Divorce Risk: A Perspective Based on the Social Clock Theory

The relationship between age at first marriage and divorce risk has been a central topic in sociology for many years. Most studies on this subject define marriage timing based on absolute age, often neglecting the influence of cultural norms regarding marriage age across different historical periods. This study draws on longitudinal data from six waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) collected between 2010 and 2020, resulting in a final sample of 39,243 individuals (19,003 men and 20,240 women). The participants were divided into five cohorts based on the period of their first marriage, and the common age of first marriage in each cohort was calculated using data from the China Population Census Yearbook (2020). From this, early and late marriage ages were identified. A log-logistic model in survival analysis was employed to examine the relationship between divorce risk and age at first marriage, with additional analysis conducted using the traditional method of categorizing marriage age. The findings suggest that individuals who married much earlier or much later than the common age of first marriage had marriages that were approximately 21% shorter in duration (TR 0.79, 95% CI 0.66-0.94; TR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.93) compared to those who married at the common age. Marriages of those who married slightly earlier or later than their peers were about 12% shorter (TR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79-0.99; TR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-1.01). The traditional method, which divided marriage age into absolute categories, showed that only those who married before age 21 had significantly shorter marriages compared to those who married between ages 21 and 25 (TR 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.96).