A Climate Changing? Opinion Alignment, Climate Change Beliefs, and Social Cohesion

Studies focusing on the phenomenon of public opinion polarization primarily investigate whether opinions have become more radicalized. In contrast, some scholars advocate for greater emphasis on opinion alignment—an aspect that has largely flown under the radar. Baldassarri and Gelman (2008, 409), for example, argue that “opinion alignment, rather than opinion radicalization, is the aspect of polarization that is more likely to have consequences on social integration and political stability. From a substantive viewpoint, if people aligned along multiple, potentially divisive issues, even if they did not take extreme positions on each of them, the end result would be a polarized society.”

In light of the cultural conflict said to be deepening in Western societies—where some fear it may render meaningful social interaction increasingly difficult—this paper scrutinizes the role of beliefs about climate change, the issue often portrayed as the most pressing challenge of our time, as a linchpin for opinions on gender rights, immigration, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Against this backdrop, this paper aims to explore ways to approach the overarching question of how opinion alignment, particularly perceptions of others’ opinion alignment, influences social cohesion. Drawing on findings from previous studies and outlining future research directions that mainly rely on the Norwegian Citizen Panel, this presentation provides a concentrated outline of my PhD research, focusing on whether climate change beliefs are perceived as proxies for positions on other recently salient issues, examining variations in these perceptions between climate believers and skeptics, and assessing the potential impact of viewing climate change beliefs as cultural cues on social interactions between these groups.