Green Transitions in the Periphery: Derisking, Dependency, and Alternative State-Capital Relations

Governments across the Global North and South are turning to green industrial policy to address the ongoing climate crisis. However, the financial architecture of these policies has become subject to heated debate, with critics pointing to predatory state-capital relations embedded in the “derisking” of green investments. In this paper, I examine this “derisking” critique and its limits. While critics correctly index an ongoing subordination of the state to capital, I argue their misunderstanding of 20th century developmental states entails a misdiagnosis of contemporary industrial policy. I then apply this argument to the Global South, where Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) threaten to reproduce structural adjustments in order to ensure stable returns for Northern donors and exporters. Finally, I offer a set of recommendations for states pursuing just green transitions without core-periphery dependencies. Taken together, these alternative state-capital relations shed light on the institutional transformations necessary for meaningful low-carbon development.