A Climate of Distrust: How Affective Climate Polarization Shapes Attitudes Toward Decarbonization

Do those who support and those who oppose decarbonization trust or distrust one another? And does it matter? For over a decade, political scientists have been theorizing growing dislike and distrust between partisans – a phenomenon termed ‘affective polarisation’. Affective polarisation is crucial to understand as it is linked with increased tolerance for political violence and an overall decrease in adherence to democratic norms. Despite paying considerable attention to ideological polarisation over climate change, environmental sociologists have been slow to attend to affective dynamics between climate partisans. We address this gap by analysing representative survey data from a sample of Canadian households (n=2503). We find evidence of high and asymmetric levels of affective polarisation, with supporters of decarbonization expressing stronger out-group dislike and ingroup favouritism compared with opponents of decarbonization, across a suite of measures. We use these measures alongside demographic controls to predict attitudes toward climate change and decarbonization. Interestingly, we find that higher levels of affective polarization (i.e., stronger out-group dislike and ingroup favouritism) are associated with pro-environmental climate attitudes. We reflect on the significance of these findings for climate politics and environmental governance, as well as for broader questions of the relationship between democracy and climate action.