Shifting Tides of Nationalism: A Comparative Study in Mainland China and Taiwan

This study utilizes the 2008 and 2018 East Asian Social Surveys, employing non-parametric rank-sum tests and quantile regression to assess the evolution and influencing factors of nationalism in mainland China and Taiwan. Over a decade, it reveals a general decline in East Asian nationalism (excluding North Korea), with mainland China consistently displaying significantly higher levels, and Taiwan significant lower. Meanwhile, in both mainland China and Taiwan, individuals who maintain closer social distances with neighboring countries exhibit stronger nationalism compared to those with distant countries. Cross-sectional comparisons reveal that age and conservatism consistently exert a positive influence on nationalism across all quantiles at every examined time point. In mainland China, the impact of education on nationalism is notably significant primarily at lower quantiles. Conversely, in Taiwan, social distance significantly impacts higher quantiles, suggesting a pattern of Exclusion without Nationalism. Longitudinal comparisons indicate noticeable shifts over time. Specifically, while mainland China has experienced substantial changes, Taiwan's changes have remained relatively stable. In mainland China, the influence of socioeconomic status on nationalism, initially non-significant in 2008, emerged as significant across all quantiles by 2018, signifying a growing ideological divide among different social strata. Moreover, attitudes towards anti-globalization in mainland China have evolved from a negative influence on nationalism in 2008 to a positive one by 2018, reflecting a shift from liberal economic nationalism to producerism. In contrast, the comparison between the two survey years in Taiwan underscores the marginal effects of international exposure. This study aims to offer a nuanced perspective on the evolution of nationalism in mainland China and Taiwan over the past decade. By exploring the unique political contexts of each region and their potential impact on nationalist sentiments, it seeks to contribute to a better understanding of regional socio-political dynamics.