Who Drives the Transition to a More Sustainable Future? Temporal Dynamics of Environmental Attitudes and Behavior in Japan from 1993 to 2020

Governmental policies that drive large-scale systemic changes are crucial in the struggle to combat the climate crisis. Their success depends on public compliance, especially in democracies, where voters can impact government agendas. Therefore, it is important to understand how individuals perceive climate change and, in turn, under what conditions these perceptions drive behavior. This is especially relevant in Japan, where political engagement at the individual level has been historically weak, even on issues of societal significance.

Given this context, we investigate the evolution of environmental attitudes, self-efficacy, willingness to make sacrifices, and actual behavior in Japan between 1993 and 2020. Using survey data from the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) Environment module for the years 1993, 2000, 2010, and 2020, and applying year fixed effects regression, we analyze how perceptions and responses to environmental issues have shifted over time and identify the primary trends. We focus on strength and determinants of pro-environmental attitudes, the willingness to make sacrifices to protect the climate, environmental self-efficacy, and beliefs in external solutions to the climate crisis, as well as how these factors interrelate with pro-environmental behavior. We examine how these factors differ across various social groups and test which specific factors shape the translation of attitudes into action.

Our findings suggest that while pro-environmental attitudes in Japan have slightly increased over time, both the general willingness to make personal sacrifices for environmental benefits and environmental self-efficacy have declined. Similarly, engagement in various pro-environmental behaviors has also decreased. These patterns appear consistent across different sociodemographic groups, indicating an absence of significant divides by social class or generation within the Japanese population. This indicates that the population still subscribes to the government's promise of economic growth and is unlikely to act as a corrective to lead Japan onto a greener path.