Trafficking As Choice? Evidence from Nigeria

The public discourse surrounding human trafficking often portrays migrants as naive subjects of deceit and disinformation. Yet, a contrasting perspective emphases migrants' agency in choosing trafficking as a form of migration. We shed light on this discussion by investigating original data from a two-wave repeated cross-section of approximately 2,700 individuals fielded in 2021 and 2023 in Edo State, Nigeria, a focal point for international migration and human trafficking. Our data shows that a significant share of respondents express a willingness to expose themselves to human trafficking to migrate even when this arrangement could lead to forced labor to pay back one's debt to the trafficker. Results from a list experiment indicate that we likely underestimate the willingness to rely on human trafficking in direct assessments, especially among women. The downward-bias may result from female trafficking oftentimes leading to socially stigmatized and forced sex work. Yet on average, survey respondents are well-informed about the risks and earnings potential associated with trafficking. Investigating whether information is differently processed if aspirations are high, we find no evidence for self-deception or recall biases regarding the processing of information about trafficking. Instead, we suggest that individuals who would expose themselves to human trafficking exhibit high migration aspirations but limited migration capabilities, especially with respect to financial opportunities and formal education. While our study shows that choosing this high-risk migration mode does not stem from naivety, becoming receptive to trafficking due to low migration capabilities should not be confused with making the same decision under full freedom of choice.