Perception of the War in Ukraine and a Possible ‘Reunification’ War with Taiwan

This study examines the perspectives of Chinese citizens regarding two ongoing international conflicts: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the hypothetical scenario of China employing force to reunify Taiwan. The former conflict has persisted since February 2022, while the latter remains an unrealized but increasingly pressing concern due to growing threats from Beijing authorities. Utilizing online surveys conducted among Chinese citizens, this research aims to address several critical inquiries. Specifically, it investigates the level of support among Chinese citizens for these two conflicts. To what extent do Chinese citizens endorse Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and how many are in favor of the Chinese government using force to unify Taiwan? Are there significant differences in support for these conflicts across different social groups? Do the urban-rural divide, socioeconomic status, educational background, and occupational experiences significantly influence individuals' attitudes toward these conflicts? Is there a correlation between those who support Russia's invasion of Ukraine and those inclined to support China’s potential intervention in Taiwan? Beyond individual characteristics, this study explores how social experiences and socio-psychological attitudes may impact people’s stances on these conflicts. For example, it investigates the degree to which exposure to foreign media and online information, as well as contact with official propaganda, affects individuals' attitudes toward these conflicts. Furthermore, the research examines whether individuals who hold a more optimistic outlook on China’s future development and have greater confidence in the Chinese political-economic system are more likely to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s potential use of force in Taiwan. Conversely, do those with a more pessimistic view of China’s future and greater dissatisfaction with their living conditions exhibit significantly different attitudes toward these conflicts? This paper presents the potential mechanisms that influence the attitudes of the Chinese populace toward these conflicts and discusses their implications.