The Impact of Armed Conflict on Judicial Behaviour: Evidence from Crimea

Judicial objectivity and impartiality are foundational expectations of society in the application of law. However, judges often encounter influences from various legally irrelevant factors. One of these factors in international commercial disputes is wars. This is the first study to provide causal evidence of the wartime effect on judicial behaviour. I estimate the effect of the Crimea annexation in 2014 on the enforcement of foreign judgments and arbitral awards in Russia and Ukraine. Using a universe of domestic case law from both countries spanning 2009 to 2019, I employ a difference-in-differences design. The results reveal a decline of 25-30 \% in the enforcement rates of Ukrainian judgments and awards in Russia, and reciprocally of Russian decisions in Ukraine, following the annexation. The effect is heterogeneous for different legal acts, ethnic groups among judges, as well as depend on geography of courts. I also investigate how legal representation, judicial discretion, general public attitudes dependency and disruptions in international communication contribute to these outcomes.