Structural Drivers of Right-Wing Populism: A Demand and Supply Analysis of the European Parliament Elections, 2004-2019

In contemporary democratic systems, the rise of right-wing populism has become a prominent political phenomenon. Traditional analyses, focusing primarily on voter preferences, have inadequately addressed the structural and supply-sides of populism. This study reorients the discourse by applying social identity and economic voting theories—commonly used to explain voter behavior—to understand the supply of populist electoral options. Analyzing both demand and supply determinants of right-wing populism in the European Parliament Elections from 2004 to 2019, our research utilizes a unique longitudinal panel dataset at the meso level. This dataset not only integrates subnational election results but also categorizes the populism level of each political party and incorporates socio-economic regional indicators. Our findings reveal a disparity between voter preferences and the availability of populist parties, highlighting how economic conditions shape both the demand and supply of populism, while immigration rates have a different impact. Specifically, higher immigration levels predominantly influence the supply of populist options, in contrast to a scarcity of social contact with immigrants, which amplifies voter support. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of how right-wing populism is rooted in and responsive to structured social contradictions, and economic dislocations, offering insights into the complex interplay of forces that forge populist resonances and strategies.