Intergenerational Social Mobility and Marriage Formation in South Korea: How Does Relative and Absolute Social Mobility Matter?

Since the turn of the 21^st century, South Korea has exhibited lowest-low fertility rates and the persistent downward trend in marriage. However, we know little about what role its social stratification processes play in such drastic demographic change. This study seeks to fill this gap by examining how patterns of intergenerational social mobility are linked with the likelihood of marriage entrance. Specifically, this research develops a theoretical framework in which individuals’ decision making on marriage formation is a function of assessing their experience on relative and absolute social mobility. Here, relative mobility refers to how an individual’s socioeconomic position in his/her generation compares to his/her parents’ socioeconomic position in their generation, whereas absolute mobility to how an individual’s socioeconomic position directly compares with his/her parents’ socioeconomic position. Therefore, relative and absolute social mobility signifies the extent of social fluidity and overall socioeconomic upgrading, respectively, in a society in which individuals live. This study contends that a higher level of relative mobility should have a fostering impact on family formation, but that it can also have a constraining impact if it engenders more uncertainty and competition. A higher level of absolute mobility, meanwhile, is generally thought to increase individuals’ likelihood of entering marriage. To empirically investigate these expectations, this research uses data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (N = 4,988; 2,702 men and 2,286 women born between 1977 and 1991) and conducts an event history analysis. The analysis measures age at first marriage as the outcome; birth cohort-specific intergenerational rank-rank correlation of socioeconomic index (SEI) and difference between own and parents’ SEI scores as relative and absolute mobility, respectively; and an array of sociodemographics as covariates. The findings of this study will contribute to better understanding the social stratification of family formation and its implications for socioeconomic inequality.