Birth Cohorts: Do They Contribute to the Explanation of the Activity Rate in Montevideo-Uruguay 1985-2019?

The activity condition (being active or inactive) expresses the link (or its absence) of an agent with the labor market. The activity rate measures the labor supply of a country. The specific effects of age, period and birth cohorts on the activity rate of the population of Montevideo (20-70 years old) between 1985 and 2019 are studied, also considering gender and educational level. We ask ourselves, do cohort effects stay, grow or fade with age? The age-period-cohort-detrended analysis (ACPD-ACPH) developed by Chauvel (2012) is used. The results of the cohort analysis (and the duration of the effects) indicate structural social changes, warn of powerful and long-term processes of social exclusion from the paradigmatic institutional mechanisms of an integrated society, which affect men with low schooling, born from from 1995.