Academic Career Trajectories and Status Attainment: Inequality Among U.S. Doctoral Graduates in the Neoliberal Era

The shortage and competitive pressure for higher education faculty positions are evident in the United States in the context of neoliberalism. This study examines the career trajectories of U.S. doctoral students using machine learning-based cluster analysis. Through this approach, the career trajectory of doctoral students can be categorized into multiple modes, including tenure track, non-academic career, and mixed career paths. Additionally, the impact of different disciplinary backgrounds and school rankings on doctoral students' careers is significant. The analysis shows that female and minority doctoral students are less likely to enter the tenure track after graduation, that graduates from highly ranked schools are more likely to secure stable academic positions, and that doctoral students in science fields are more likely to pursue non-academic careers compared to those in the liberal arts. This study also examines the impact of different career paths on status attainment, including earnings and managerial status. By focusing on career trajectories rather than a single outcome variable such as tenure/professorship attainment, this study challenges the traditional assumption of a “pipeline model of tenure” and reveals the diversity and non-linear mobility of doctoral students' career paths. It also sheds light on the occupational differentiation of the doctoral cohort under neoliberalism and its impact on income distribution, thus helping to understand inequality in academic careers.