Pathways of the Environmental State: Global Climate Politics in the Amazon Rainforest

Sociological studies show that economic growth or global norms diffusion lead to domestic environmental institutions, but how do states build the capacity to implement climate mitigation as a bureaucratic function? Drawing on administrative data, in-depth interviews, and archival work, I explain the variation in CO₂ outcomes in Brazil from 1985 to 2022. Building on fictitious commodities, I center environmental problems as a distinct domain of state-building and follow how these transform state capacity and economic elites’ resistance. In what I call sheltered experimentation, environmental bureaucrats leverage transnational and scientific ties to protect themselves from politics and increase climate capacity. The state then implements policy effectively, drawing the attention of economic elites (i.e., infrastructural clarification) and leading to climate stalemates: the equilibrium in which policies could potentially reduce emissions, but elites disallow vast transformation. I discuss when to expect variation in pathways to effectiveness and stalemates by arguing we find ourselves in a novel, heated world-system where the economy is not the sole structural source of power. I conclude with my contributions to varied fields of sociology.