‘It’s All about What’s Possible’: The Making of ‘Plausible Futures’ By the Bundeswehr’s Futures Researchers

‘It’s up to politicians to come up with visions for the future, and it’s down to us to show them what else could happen’: How do the Bundeswehr’s (i.e., the German federal armed forces) futures researchers arrive at the conclusion that a future scenario of Germany’s – and thus NATO’s – security situation in the 21st century is ‘plausible’, that it has significance for the country’s defence planning, and that it should therefore be taken into account in strategic decisions by the military leadership? This paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the epistemic culture of futures studies by military actors in 21st century Western societies. Over the past decade, the ‘plausibility’ of future scenarios has become a central epistemological guiding concept in strategic foresight by government agencies, far beyond the realm of defence. However, empirical research on the ‘practice of plausibility’ has been scarce thus far, resulting in a significant research gap in STS research. This paper helps to fill this research gap by drawing on the findings of a six-month, multi-site ethnographic study at the Future Analysis Unit of the Bundeswehr Planning Office in Berlin. The ethnographic study consisted of participant observation of the Unit’s scenario analyses in 2023, supplemented by various other data sources being analysed during this period (e.g., document, interview, and technology analyses). The most comprehensive scenario analysis conducted by the Bundeswehr’s futures researchers is the Strategische Vorausschau (Strategic Foresight) project with a 25-year horizon. This paper – by tracing in detail the reasoning at the heart of the specific research practices making up the project – provides in-depth insights into the ‘making of’ ‘plausible futures’ by the actors involved. ‘If something like this were to actually happen, what would I need to do to prepare?’