The Left-behind Voter: The Geography of Discontent between Central and Marginal Areas in Italy

In recent decades, there has been a notable redefinition of geographical inequalities. Contemporary societies appear to be characterized by decreasing inequalities between countries and increasing disparities within countries (Hurley et al., 2019; Chancel, Piketty, 2021). In this scenario, the difference between central and marginal areas is growing at the sub-national level. Central areas are characterized by better job opportunities and life chances (Fielding, 1992), and the attraction of highly qualified human capital (Moretti 2004; Florida, 2005). Conversely, marginal areas are characterized by declining economic and life prospects, a reduction in available social services, and significant demographic shifts including depopulation, ageing, and emigration. These left-behind places (Rodríguez-Pose, 2018; Pike et al., 2023) are experiencing an increasing discontent and anti-establishment position in the population (Dijkstra et al., 2020).

The Italian context offers a privileged setting for examining the relation between spatial marginalization and the ascendance of populism. Alongside the traditional North/South dualism, Italy is experiencing an increasing inequality between central and inner areas, a cleavage that emphasizes the spatial peripherality concerning services of general interest (Modica et al., 2021).

The aim of this study is to analyze the relations between voting behavior and different territorial cleavages in Italy. To this end, it analyses the outcome of recent electoral consultations at the municipal level and by macro-area, controlling for a selection of demographic, social and economic indicators. Initial findings indicate an increase in discontent, evidenced by both a rise in abstentionism and a growth in support for populist parties. Furthermore, if peripheral municipalities demonstrate their discontent through abstentionism, the consensus for populist parties indicates that only Fratelli d’Italia and Lega Nord present a village-oriented profile with roots in the inner areas, whereas the M5S (Five Star Movement) obtains its support primarily from southern voters residing in large municipalities.