Downward Housing Trajectories during Childhood and Its Implications for Youth Exposure to Police Contact

This study examines within-individual variability in residential mobility during childhood on the likelihood of police contact at age 14, a subject that has received limited scholarly attention despite evidence of its long-term harmful consequences. Using data from 11,176 participants in the United Kingdom Millennium Cohort Study, we developed a novel measure of housing tenure trajectories to examine the qualitative features of childhood residential experiences and their life-course implications. Our findings from logistic regressions reveal that controlling for the number of moves, adolescents exposed to cumulative housing hardship, defined as repeated residential mobility in the framework of a downward housing trajectory (irregular tenure, priced out from ownership, and growing up in cost-burned households), have a higher likelihood of police-initiated contact (stop and search, caution, or arrest). In contrast, adolescents who either remained in one place or moved within stable homeownership are significantly less likely to encounter police. The relationship between housing hardship and police contact is only partially explained by adolescents’ engagement in unlawful behaviours. Mediation analysis using the Karlson-Holm-Breen decomposition method reveals that substance abuse and property delinquency together account for 7.6 to 22.8 per cent of the total effect. However, prolonged housing insecurity has more substantial adverse impacts, including increased externalising behaviour problems, school disengagement, and social isolation, all of which are associated with a higher likelihood of youth-police interactions.