Divergent Futures: The “Probable” Transition of Chilean Patagonia Toward Renewable Energies

From a social sciences perspective, extractivist dynamics have been extensively criticized for obstructing the construction of socially and environmentally sustainable societies. Historical collapses linked to extractive industries, such as rubber and saltpeter in Latin America, underscore the fragility inherent in mono-productive economies. While extractivism has repeatedly proven inadequate to promote social and economic development, it paradoxically conceals potential to coordinate present actions toward building what I call “a collective, albeit imperfect, social future.” This potential can be observed across various global industries, including oil, copper, biofuels, and green energies.

In the context of the urgent need for an energy transition, a fundamental question emerges: Can emerging sectors like Green Hydrogen contribute to shaping desired societal trajectories? Using the case of Chilean Patagonia as an illustrative example, I propose the concept of “divergent futures” as a framework for collectively examining the developmental pathways of nascent and prospective industries. “Divergence” here captures contrasting visions regarding the scale, scope, and organizational frameworks of emerging industries across different social domains.

However, such divergences are not benign; they generate desynchronizations that profoundly impact the lived experiences of individuals and communities. Drawing from 15 semi-structured interviews, I highlight examples, such as young people training in alternative energy skills for industries that have yet to materialize locally, or families incurring debt to upgrade their homes in anticipation of accommodating workers who have yet to arrive. These examples reveal significant differences within social groups supporting energy transition, not only between opposing groups, as traditionally studied in Social Sciences.

Therefore, recognizing these divergent futures calls for critical reflection on democratizing the envisioning of future trajectories in extractive economies. This approach empowers communities to make informed choices among competing territorial aspirations regarding the hosting of productive activities.