Uncertainty and the Pace of Refugee Integration

Refugee socioeconomic integration may follow different pathways and happen at varying paces. Utilizing data from the 2022 and 2023 waves of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP panel survey as well as administrative data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty in settlement intentions of Ukrainian refugees in Germany on their speed of language and labor market integration. Due to the restrictions on emigration for men of military age, the group of refugees consists mainly of women, for whom the incidence of uncertainty is higher. Based on the assumptions of Goal-Setting and Rational Choice theories as well as the Immigrant Human Capital Investment model, we utilize survival analysis techniques and disentangle the effect of settlement intentions on the timing of German language course enrollment and transition to first employment among individuals with permanent settlement, uncertain, or short-term stay intentions. Our findings reveal that refugees with intentions to permanently settle in Germany enroll in language courses more quickly than those with uncertain intentions, while the latter do so more quickly than those planning to leave Germany after a short stay. A nuanced analysis of transitions to employment among these three groups of refugees suggests that individuals with permanent settlement intentions transition to their first jobs in the host country quicker than those with uncertain or short-term stay intentions. These findings suggest that uncertainty in settlement intentions may be detrimental to the speed of integration.