The Impact of Hukou and Social Capital on Future Aspirations of Migrant Children in China

The developmental trajectory of migrant children in China is crucial due to their increasing numbers and the unique challenges they face. Accounting for over one-third of China's 271 million children, these migrant children navigate complex landscapes shaped by migration status, impacting resource equality, educational equity, healthcare access, psychological adaptation, and social integration. Schools, as primary arenas for socio-emotional development, play a vital role in shaping children's aspirations. However, the local hukou system often restricts access to quality education, influencing aspirations by creating barriers based on rural-urban and local-non-local distinctions.

This paper examines how hukou status and social capital affect migrant children's aspirations, focusing on the emotional and cognitive dimensions often overlooked in existing research. The study explores the mechanisms through which the hukou system influences aspiration inequality, considering rurality and segmented assimilation theory. It highlights how social networks and school environments can either mitigate or exacerbate these effects.

Using data from the China Education Panel Survey (CEPS), the study identifies three migration statuses—local, new local, and non-local migrants—and analyzes their impact on educational, occupational, and residential aspirations. The findings reveal that migrant children generally have lower future aspirations, influenced by limited social capital and institutional barriers. However, changes in peer interactions and school-level hukou diversity can moderate these effects, suggesting that inclusive environments can enhance aspirations.

The research underscores the importance of understanding the interplay between institutional arrangements and social networks in shaping migrant children's futures. The insights gained can inform policy interventions aimed at supporting the aspirational development and overall well-being of migrant children in China. By shifting focus from objective educational outcomes to aspirations, the study offers a comprehensive understanding of migrant children's potential social mobility and future prospects.