Who Remains Single? Educational Gradients in Long-Term Singlehood Among Ethnic Majority and Minority Members in the Netherlands

Objective: To compare the prevalence of long-term singlehood and its educational gradient between ethnic majority and minority groups.

Background: Singlehood is associated with poor health, loneliness, and a lack of social support. Educational gradients in singlehood vary systematically with countries’ prevalent gender roles and European societies have incorporated ethnic minorities with origins in gender-traditionalist countries. This study, therefore, investigates whether the prevalence of singlehood and its educational gradient differ between ethnic majority and minority groups and whether the availability of suitable partners is driving any such differences.

Method: Drawing on full-population register data from the Netherlands, educational gradients in the risk of entering one’s first co-residential union (i.e., cohabitation or marriage) between age 18 and 44 are examined. This is done among women and men of Dutch, Turkish, and Moroccan origin born between 1977 and 1983 using binary logistic regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves.

Results: Long-term singlehood is more common among minority members. University education is associated with lower singlehood rates among men of all groups and ethnically Dutch women but with higher singlehood rates among women of Turkish and Moroccan origin. This is partially explained by the limited availability of coethnic university-educated male partners.

Conclusion: The interplay of preferences, third party norms, and structural constraints affects who remains single in diversifying societies.