Reimagining Resilience: Co-Producing Just Social-Ecological Futures in the Southern Sierra Madre, Philippines

This paper presents insights from the ongoing project "The Futures of People and Forest: Co-production of Knowledge for Just Social-Ecological Transformations in Southern Sierra Madre," which seeks to explore equitable adaptation strategies for communities in the southern portion of Sierra Madre, the longest mountain range in the Philippines. The project is anchored on the co-production of knowledge among various stakeholders—including local governments, civil society organizations, academic institutions, and local communities—to examine the region's key drivers of change. These drivers include climate change impacts, economic transformations, and the ongoing development of a multi-million dollar mega dam project (the Kaliwa Dam) designed to secure water resources for the country’s capital. Using a transdisciplinary approach and participatory future scenario methods, the project facilitates collective reflection on the multiple possible futures for communities living alongside the Kaliwa Dam and the identification of just adaptation pathways that align with community preferences and sustainability goals. In this paper, we will share initial lessons from the project, including insights from the future scenario and backcasting workshops and the politics of co-producing knowledge of alternative futures. A key focus is the potential trade-offs between short-term gains and the long-term climate resilience of these vulnerable communities associated with emerging and envisioned socio-technical pathways. We will also explore the implications of these findings for climate adaptation policy and planning, particularly in the context of securing the long-term social-ecological resilience of forest-dependent communities amidst new risks and uncertainties. The paper emphasizes how co-production of knowldge, combined with futures thinking, enables stakeholders to anticipate long-term challenges and opportunities, ensuring that adaptation strategies are not only just and community-driven but also resilient to emergent conditions.