The Unproud. Political Representation and the LGBTQ+ Backlash

This study analyses the relationship between public opinion and political representation of LGBTQ+ people in democratic societies from 1980 to 2022. Despite advances in LGBTQ+ rights and visibility, there has also been an increase in violent reactions and hate speech. This reflects tensions in public opinion, as progress in LGBTQ+ rights generates resistance in some social sectors that promote hate speech or perceive these rights as threats. The study seeks to understand how the presence of LGBTQ+ political representatives (descriptive representation) and pro-LGBTQ+ laws and policies (substantive representation) influence perceptions of sexual diversity.

Using data from over 50 democracies from various sources (WVS, QueerPolitics , Equaldex , CSES, ParlGov) the relationship between public opinion and LGBTQ+ representation is examined. The analysis uses a regression model with cross-lagged variables to explore causalities between LGBTQ+ representation and reactions against it. In addition, variables such as traditionalism, religiosity and the influence of radical right-wing political parties are incorporated.

The results reveal that views towards LGBTQ+ people influence political representation, not the other way around. These views are conditioned by traditional conceptions of roles and resource distribution. The anti-LGBTQ+ backlash shares characteristics with other traditionalist backlashes, but has particularities. Although in hostile contexts the number of LGBTQ+ representatives increase, legislative progress depends on the relative increase of these representatives, not only on their absolute number. Pro-LGBTQ+ movements achieve progress through awareness-raising, lobbying and mobilisation of demands, which drives legislative change and improves the acceptance of sexual diversity in public opinion. Finally, these results are useful both for improving our understanding of the democratic process and the non-linear development of progress and social inclusion, and for identifying more effectively how to mitigate rejection and aversion towards LGBTQ people and the recognition of their rights.