In Anticipation of (In)Stability? On Potential Stabilising Factors of Societies in the Future

In the face of a multitude of global turbulences as well as rapid social and technological change in the current phase of the Anthropocene, late modern societies are arguably entering an era of instability, while anticipations of the future are characterised by even more uncertainty. Three developments are substantially contributing to this situation: (1) a shift of communication into the digital sphere leads to an increase of knowledge conflicts and competing epistemes; (2) democracies are experiencing growing problems in governing the complex crises they are facing while public trust in their institutions and policy makers is declining; (3) anthropogenic climate change and the scarcity of natural resources are making the limits to economic growth and the resource-intensive lifestyle of societies of the global north ever more present. Even though late modern societies are facing a doubtful future, sociological theory has given little attention to the question of which factors could become pillars of societal stability in the future. Building on Berger/Luckmann as well as Hausknost’s concept of passive legitimacy, this contribution suggests a social constructivist perspective to better understand current societal instability and to make sense of potential stabilising factors of future societies. By drawing on the history of modernity, it argues that the stability of society depends on: (1) the social construction of a shared ‘objective’ reality with certain guiding paradigms and narratives (social stability); (2) the capability of policy makers to generate passive legitimacy (political stability); and (3) the shared perception and/or prospect of material prosperity (material stability). Potential factors of future societal (in)stability, such as artificial intelligence, expertise and ideology, are then analysed through the lens of these three stability dimensions. Thereby, this contribution aims to shed light on the plausibility of different scenarios of future societal (re)stabilisation.