Social Development, Electoral Politics and Welfare State Expansion: A South African Case Study

The literature suggests that the expansion of welfare policies, notably cash transfers in development contexts, is associated with the expansion of welfare states in the Global South. This is a pertinent question to consider as an unprecedented number of countries have held national general elections in 2024. In this lecture, I examine this proposition with reference to survey data from South Africa, a country that held a general election in 2024. It is also a constitutional democracy; it has a strong commitment to social rights and a fairly developed welfare system. Using data from five representative national cross-sectional surveys (2017-2024), findings are presented of what influences voter preferences. A range of factors are tested in a statistical model to identify predictors of voter choice such as socio-economic wellbeing (e.g. (un)employment; access to basic services; receipt of a cash transfer; governance, corruption, party loyalty, party leadership and specific demographic factors (age, gender and geographic location). Findings suggest that although indicators of socio-economic wellbeing are the four top reasons for choosing a political party, other factors matter more as predictors of party choice. I conclude that multiple and intersecting factors are important in voter choice. It appears that the relationship between social development policies and welfare state expansion in the Global South is not linear. A more nuanced understanding is needed that is shaped by specific country conditions.