Reconstructing Kinship Networks in the Absence of Conflict: A Demographic Simulation of Mexico without the ‘War Against Drugs’

This research explores the impact of the ‘war against drugs’ on family structures by simulating a scenario in Mexico without such conflict, focusing on how the absence of armed violence affects kinship networks. The ‘war,’ as the militarization strategy launched in 2006 is known, significantly increased violent deaths, broke family ties, and created gaps in social cohesion. Therefore, understanding how these structures would look without violence provides valuable insights into the social costs of this conflict.

Using demographic models, we simulated kinship structures in Mexico without the interruption of violent conflict, analyzing how this scenario would reshape intergenerational family networks. Our kinship matrix models assume a period-based perspective, using mortality projections while maintaining constant fertility rates, based on pre-2006 data, prior to the start of military intervention. This counterfactual scenario allows us to assess the long-term consequences of violence on family bonds, collective memory, and social cohesion.

Preliminary results quantify the loss of relatives and, at the same time, allow us to measure the absence of family members. Gender differences between missing fathers and sons compared to missing mothers and daughters also illustrate the face of grief. These findings offer a unique perspective and have important implications for understanding how violence disrupts family structures, shapes victim narratives, and influences memory and reconciliation policies.