Shadows of the Deep Transition. a Political Ecology of War Beyond the Anthropocene Narrative

Existing sociological perspectives on the ecological crisis, particularly those centered on the Anthropocene, often neglect the complex links between environmental degradation, global fossil capitalism, and the intensification of armed conflicts. We argue that these processes are instead central features of the shift towards a profound, long-term transformation of interconnected socio-technical systems, particularly centered around the energy sector: the Second Deep Transition. By integrating insights from political ecology, social metabolism, and Arrighi’s world-systems analysis, we position contemporary conflicts within the competitive dynamics of both established and aspiring hegemons seeking to shape new hegemonic cycles while reconfiguring global capitalist metabolic patterns. Our examination of the interplay between nature, capitalism, and war, historically intertwined with military power's need for energy access and control, reveals how extractivism and ecocidal militarism manifest in both old and new armed conflicts, rooted in systemic power disparities. Despite recurrent pacified imaginaries of the transition, we highlight how the novel competition for energy resources and raw materials can still exacerbate potential conflicts and violence, indicating both the continuity and co-existence of traditional resource wars with the so-called "Green Wars" for critical minerals and renewables. Understanding these complex interactions is essential for fostering and envisioning just, peaceful, and sustainable futures. By challenging reductionist and deterministic narratives, we advocate for a political ecology of war as a vital framework for sociology to address these urgent challenges.