Programmatic and Identity Components of Religious Voting: An Exploration of the Chilean Case

This article examines whether and how members of religious groups are more inclined to support right-wing political options compared to non-religious citizens. Using mediation analysis, the study investigates the individual-level mechanisms that link religious affiliation to electoral choices. Drawing on panel data from a survey of Chilean adults, which tracks voting preferences across four recent presidential and constitutional elections, the analysis focuses on two primary mechanisms: identity voting and programmatic voting. The latter emphasizes three key issues—sexual morality, political verticalism, and socioeconomic inequality. The findings show that religious affiliation is a strong predictor of voting behavior, primarily driven by programmatic concerns, with sexual morality and political verticalism playing dominant roles, while socioeconomic preferences have a limited impact. In contrast, the identity mechanism proves significant in only one of the four elections analyzed, suggesting that religious voting in Chile is more influenced by issue-based preferences than by symbolic loyalties. While some differences emerge between Catholic and Evangelical voters, the overall trend is consistent across both groups.