Anticipating Late Petro-State Politics amidst Climate Catastrophe

Many Global North countries have historically developed by exploiting fossil fuel resources, which has contributed to the climate catastrophe we face today. But what happens when countries in the Global South discover oil late, during a global shift away from fossil fuels due to the climate crisis? Development scholars often propose a stagist model for economic growth, while emerging research on climate change temporalities highlights the need for all governments to anticipate the far-reaching consequences of their fossil-fueled development plans, both for the present and future. By thinking from Guyana, where massive oil reserves were discovered in 2015, and where citizens contend with abject poverty imposed through (neo)colonialism, this paper investigates how state and civil society actors navigate entrenched visions of development amidst the pressing demands of responding to climate catastrophe. Through qualitative content analysis of judicial decisions, legal arguments, development plans, and speeches related to Guyana’s oil industry, I introduce the concept of “late petro-state” politics. I show how the Guyanese government leverages compressed timelines and the anticipated impermanence of oil profits to justify accelerated development, often at the expense of decarbonization. In contrast, civil society actors resist this acceleration by invoking inter-scalar climate obligations and intergenerational commitments. As the climate catastrophe intensifies, this study illuminates how shifting temporalities influence state decision-making and resistance, contributing to broader discussions on the feasibility of fossil-fueled progress and imagining just futures in the Anthropocene.