Imagined Futures in Mineral Resource Governance: An Analysis of Institutional Developments in the ‘Lithium Triangle’

This research explores the role of future expectations in shaping lithium governance policies in Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia. As global demand for lithium rises due to its critical use in energy storage, these governments have introduced reforms aimed at enhancing state control over extraction and promoting local battery production. A significant portion of the world’s lithium reserves is concentrated in the Lithium Triangle, a region encompassing the salt flats of these three countries, making their policies particularly influential on both economic development and the global supply chain. Drawing on the "imagined futures" literature, I argue that future expectations play a key role in governments' legitimisation strategies for lithium extraction and in shaping their institutional choices. The research focuses on Bolivia’s Law 444, Chile’s National Lithium Strategy, and Argentina’s “Misión Litio.” Through an analysis of these cases, I aim to identify the key factors that influenced policy decisions and assess their importance in shaping outcomes.The methodology includes 40 interviews with policymakers in these countries, supplemented by discussions with experts, NGOs, political analysts, and community leaders to provide a broader context. This project contributes to the literature on institutional change and resource governance by examining how ideas inform policy-making in the emerging lithium sector.