No More Revolutions in the Anthropocene? Why the Slippery Slope of Low-Carbon Energy Transitions Disadvantages Progressive Politics

Historical research shows that progressive political revolutions and social transformations occurred during times of energy transitions. This has been the case most eminently in the transition from agrarian to industrial energy systems. It shattered the feudal order, fostered the emergence of liberalism, and supported universalistic political demands. Some observers expect that the imminent transition towards a post-fossil energy system will repeat this pattern and trigger a progressive development towards an ever more inclusive post-fossil polity. In this paper, we argue that the opposite is more likely. The emerging post-carbon energy system is on a slippery slope towards particularistic tribalism and post-liberal politics.

We begin by introducing the distinction between an expansive energy transition (moving toward higher energy density and abundance) and a reductive energy transition (moving towards lower density and limited availability). In the former case (covering all previous energy transitions in history), universal demands (e.g. for equality) and particularistic interests (in material prosperity) mutually reinforce each other. The societal outlook is one of improving the lives of the masses through the realization of universal norms. In the second case, however, universal demands and particularistic interests disintegrate and disempower each other. As a result, the universal demand for global equality under conditions of scarcity may not get backed up by the particularistic interest in securing one’s material way of life. The societal outlook in a reductive energy transition is therefore one of impending scarcity and loss, which fosters post-liberal imaginaries of defense and adaptation. At least in the near Anthropocene future, we conclude, social struggles will take place on an inclined plane, where ‘progressive’ political imaginaries of global ecological solidarity are structurally disadvantaged over ‘retrograde’ imaginaries of tribalism, nationalism and the protection of vested rights.