Between Extractivism and Green Transformation: Scenarios of Mexico’s New Sexennium

What can be learned from a major oil-producing country’s balancing the desires for the material wealth and lifestyles of the Global North with the goals of ecological sustainability and social justice? The recent election of a climate scientist to become Mexico’s first female President was accompanied by high expectations that are now facing turbulent geopolitical dynamics. This study examines competing scenarios of the new sexennium and the drivers behind them in order to address broader questions about the political leverage for transitioning from extractivism to sustainability. Critical observers ask to what extent the new administration is bound to continue the deeply entrenched support for a carbon economy and prioritization of military collaboration over human rights. Other policy analysists point to a congressional supermajority that allows more progressive politics and a green transformation. What alternative visions do political parties, corporate lobbies, and civil society actors articulate? What specific roles do social movements, including indigenous communities, environmental activists, and academic researchers take? How do different social forces contest the future pathways, and what factors shape their efficacy? How are solidarities conceptualized, enacted, and mobilized to advance social justice within the political, economic, and cultural transformations? What lessons can be drawn from the Mexican case that is relevant for other countries and regions and the broader struggle for socially and ecologically sustainable futures?